Lovable co-founder Anton Osika recently posted that his Swedish vibe coding startup had grown from $1 million to $100 million ARR in just eight months. It is the latest claim of rapid AI revenue growth pointing to a reset in the foundational assumptions of how companies scale.
Lovable and its ilk aren’t outliers: new data from mega VC a16z shows the median enterprise company now reaches $2 million ARR in its first year. Best-in-class performance from the pre-AI era would now put a startup on the low end of the benchmark.
“ That’s also quite daunting as an investor to be able to put money into something that is perfect for now, but will it last three to five years? Will it even last three to six months?”
What the hell is going on? And how can a startup count annual recurring revenue if it has only existed for a few months? I asked Ripple Ventures managing partner and fellow podcaster, Matt Cohen, these questions for a recent edition of The BetaKit Newsletter. Cohen is on The BetaKit Podcast this week, answering a few more: what are the new metrics that matter now to VCs? How are AI companies solving for thin margins and weak ROI? What about all those companies trying to bolt AI onto their products and processes?
It’s a free-flowing conversation about a revenue rollercoaster ride that Cohen expects to continue for the foreseeable future. So grab your calculator and let’s dig in.
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Edited by Darian MacDonald. Feature image courtesy Anton Osika via X.